{"repo":"xcnecon/PancakeSwap-Arbitrage-Bot","free":true,"listed":false,"github":"https://github.com/xcnecon/PancakeSwap-Arbitrage-Bot","clone":"git clone https://github.com/xcnecon/PancakeSwap-Arbitrage-Bot.git","description":"A 2021 \"arbitrage\" bot for PancakeSwap Prediction, revisited as an empirical study. 144k on-chain rounds: naive parimutuel edges of +15–25% are erased by informed late betting — a reverse favorite–longshot bias that faded as pools deepened. Dataset, bot, and analysis reproducible in 3 commands.","language":"Python","stars":16,"topics":["arbitrage","bnb","bsc","pancakeswap","blockchain","web3py","market-efficiency","prediction-markets-bot"],"license":"MIT","category":"blockchain-web3","readme_excerpt":"The Arbitrage That Wasn't: 144,000 Rounds of a Five-Minute Crypto Betting Market A 2021 betting bot, the full on-chain round history, and a reproducible post-mortem of a +19% paper edge that nets out to roughly minus the fee. Every number and figure below is regenerated by python -m research.pipeline ; the dataset invariants are asserted by tests, and CI re-runs both on every push. The repo keeps its 2021 name — the study below explains why \"arbitrage\" earned its scare quotes. TL;DR PancakeSwap Prediction is a parimutuel bet on five-minute BNB/USD moves: back Bull or Bear, winners split the losers' pool minus a 3% fee. In 2021 I noticed the two sides' payouts often diverged wildly and built a bot on a simple hypothesis: if a five-minute crypto move is a coin flip, betting the thin side whenever its implied edge cleared +25% should be free money — the average round quoted a +19% edge under that assumption. Across 143,856 settled rounds, the assumption fails in the most instructive way possible: the more a side pays, the less often it wins (43.3% for underdogs overall, down to 23% in the extreme tail), tracking the payout-implied breakeven rate almost one-for-one. What survives is a small reverse favorite–longshot bias — underdogs at final odds returned +5.5% per bet above the +25% threshold — but it lived in thin pools, faded as the market deepened, could not absorb even 1 BNB of size, and was never observable at bet time anyway. The one durable lesson is about transaction cos","default_branch":null,"files":null,"tree":[],"storefront":"/r/xcnecon","claimed":false,"request_supported":{"post":"https://gitbuyer.com/r/xcnecon/PancakeSwap-Arbitrage-Bot/request-supported","requests":0},"note":"indexed from public GitHub; nothing is for sale on this page. Clone it from GitHub. Paid listings live at /search."}