{"repo":"octavi42/prediction-market-maker","free":true,"listed":false,"github":"https://github.com/octavi42/prediction-market-maker","clone":"git clone https://github.com/octavi42/prediction-market-maker.git","description":"Market-making strategy that placed #2 in Paradigm's Prediction Market Challenge. 110 iterations, 8 hours.","language":"Python","stars":26,"topics":["algorithmic-trading","market-making","order-book","prediction-markets","python","quantitative-finance"],"license":"MIT","category":"trading","readme_excerpt":"A market-making strategy that placed #2 in Paradigm's Prediction Market Challenge 110 strategy iterations. 8 hours. One hackathon. How It Works • Strategy • Discoveries • Failures • Run It --- Results Metric Value -------- ------- Final Placement #2 out of all submissions Final Score $41.09 mean edge per simulation Strategy Iterations 110 versions Development Time 8 hours Edge Source 60% monopoly regime, 40% normal regime Final Leaderboard Rank Author Mean Edge ------ -------- ----------- #1 @ryanli $42.32 #2 @octavicristea $41.09 #3 @zhimao liu $40.81 #4 @onurakpolat $24.87 #5 @ChinesePowered $23.90 What You'll Learn This repo is a complete case study in market making for prediction markets — the mechanics of quoting, adverse selection, inventory risk, and how to size orders. Useful background if you're interested in prediction market microstructure or quantitative trading concepts. - How market makers profit — capturing the spread between uninformed flow and true probability - The monopoly regime — the single insight worth more than 100 parameter tweaks - Why sizing matters more than you think — and how to match expected retail order flow - Volatility-adjusted quote filtering — when to quote and when to sit out - Inventory management — how skew prevents catastrophic losses (removing it = -$7 swing) The Challenge Paradigm's Automated Research Hackathon (April 9, 2026) challenged participants to build a market-making strategy for a simulated binary predict","default_branch":null,"files":null,"tree":[],"storefront":"/r/octavi42","claimed":false,"request_supported":{"post":"https://gitbuyer.com/r/octavi42/prediction-market-maker/request-supported","requests":0},"note":"indexed from public GitHub; nothing is for sale on this page. Clone it from GitHub. Paid listings live at /search."}