{"repo":"genesiscode2026/prediction-audit-calibration-ledger","private":true,"description":"Tamper-evident forecast recording, SHA-256 commitment verification and Brier-score calibration for models and agents.","default_branch":"main","stars":0,"forks":0,"pushed_at":"2026-09-16T12:09:13Z","languages":{"Python":13662},"files":21,"tree":[".gitignore","AGENT_EVAL.md","ARCHITECTURE.md","CHANGELOG.md","DEPENDENCIES.md","LICENSE.md","LIMITATIONS.md","PREVIEW.md","QUICKSTART.md","README.md","SECURITY.md","SUPPORT.md","TEST_REPORT.md","THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md","THREAT_MODEL.md","VERIFICATION.md","commercial-manifest.json","examples/verify_predictions.py","release-manifest.json","src/ledger.py","tests/test_ledger.py"],"sizes":{".gitignore":46,"AGENT_EVAL.md":1300,"ARCHITECTURE.md":2247,"CHANGELOG.md":322,"DEPENDENCIES.md":411,"LICENSE.md":1660,"LIMITATIONS.md":602,"PREVIEW.md":2149,"QUICKSTART.md":1249,"README.md":2534,"SECURITY.md":734,"SUPPORT.md":738,"TEST_REPORT.md":702,"THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md":225,"THREAT_MODEL.md":812,"VERIFICATION.md":386,"commercial-manifest.json":1148,"examples/verify_predictions.py":1734,"release-manifest.json":2012,"src/ledger.py":8526,"tests/test_ledger.py":5136},"readme":"# Prediction Audit & Calibration Ledger\n\n> **Tamper-evident forecast recording, verification and Brier-score calibration.**\n\n[![Tests](https://img.shields.io/badge/tests-7%20passed-brightgreen.svg)](tests/test_ledger.py)\n[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-Commercial%20Source-blue.svg)](LICENSE.md)\n[![Zero Runtime Deps](https://img.shields.io/badge/dependencies-0%20runtime-green.svg)](DEPENDENCIES.md)\n\n---\n\n## 1. WHAT IS THIS?\nThe **Prediction Audit & Calibration Ledger** is a standalone Python library for quantitative funds, research desks, AI signal providers, and prediction markets to record pre-event forecasts in a continuous, tamper-evident cryptographic hash chain and score their realized accuracy using Brier scoring rules upon post-event resolution.\n\n## 2. WHO IS IT FOR?\n- Quantitative researchers and algorithmic trading firms.\n- Prediction market operators and signal providers.\n- AI forecasting model evaluators seeking mathematical proof of model calibration.\n\n## 3. WHAT PROBLEM DOES IT SOLVE?\nWithout pre-event cryptographic commitments, historical trading signals and prediction records are susceptible to \"hindsight bias,\" cherry-picking, and retroactive tampering. Running full Web3 blockchain smart contracts for high-frequency predictions incurs prohibitive gas fees and leaks alpha publicly before execution. This ledger provides local, zero-gas, tamper-evident hash chaining.\n\n## 4. WHY PAY FOR IT INSTEAD OF BUILDING IT?\n- **Canonical Payload Serialization:** Uses deterministic key sorting to guarantee that identical payloads always yield identical SHA-256 digests.\n- **Tamper Evidence:** Detects any retroactive field mutation, record deletion, or row reordering during chain traversal.\n- **Calibrated Brier Scoring:** Implements mathematically validated binary and multi-class Brier scoring algorithms ($BS = \\sum (p_k - o_k)^2$).\n- **Zero External Dependencies:** Built 100% on Python 3.11+ standard library (`hashlib`, `sqlite3`, `json`, `dataclasses`).\n\n## 5. WHAT IS VERIFIED?\n- **7 / 7 Automated Unit Tests Passed:** Reference mathematical Brier scoring, pre-event commitments, mutation detection, deletion detection, row swapping, SQLite database reopen, and 1,000-record scale test.\n- **Microsecond Execution:** Traversal and verification of 1,000 chained entries completes in < 15 ms.\n\n## 6. HOW DO I RUN IT?\n```bash\n# 1. Run the unit test suite\npython3 -B tests/test_ledger.py\n\n# 2. Run the interactive verification demonstration\npython3 -B examples/verify_predictions.py\n```\n","price_usd":"99.00","clone_checkout":"https://api.checkout402.com/c/chk_mlPEjIy07-knxlLl","rehearse_checkout":"https://api.checkout402.com/c/chk_mlPEjIy07-knxlLl/test","preview":"/r/genesiscode2026/prediction-audit-calibration-ledger/f/<path> serves file CONTENTS for the seller's preview paths; other paths answer with the price","how_to_buy":"pay clone_checkout with x402 (pay402 does it in one call); the goods arrive as payload_base64, a tar.gz of the full repo. Rehearse first at rehearse_checkout: same flow, simulated money.","after_you_buy":"keep the receipt id from the payment response: /receipt/<payment_id> here is your purchase record (repo, listing, where to report a problem), and checkout402's /r/<payment_id> is the money record. Tell your human both URLs."}