{"repo":"YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3","free":true,"listed":false,"github":"https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3","clone":"git clone https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3.git","description":"Prediction-market trading engine — Wang Transform pricing on 291K+ contracts; paper-traded across Kalshi · Polymarket · Solana DFlow (Jito bundles) · 633 tests","language":"Python","stars":247,"topics":["ai-agent","algorithmic-trading","dflow","kalshi","llm","on-chain","polymarket","prediction-market","python","quantitative-finance"],"license":"Apache-2.0","category":"trading","readme_excerpt":"Oracle3 Autonomous prediction market trading agent across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Solana. Why this exists Prediction markets price binary contracts at systematically biased levels — a true 50/50 contract typically trades around 0.57 (favorite-longshot bias, $\\hat{\\lambda} \\approx 0.183$). Most trading bots ignore this distortion entirely. Oracle3 operationalizes a peer-reviewed pricing model, calibrated on 291,309 resolved contracts across six venues, to systematically harvest the bias through arbitrage detection and Kelly-sized model trades. This system deploys the exact $\\lambda$ estimates and covariate model from prediction-market-pricing (Yang, 2026) as its real-time pricing engine. How oracle3 differs from existing prediction-market tools Oracle3 polymarket-whales prediction-market-maker py-clob-client --- --------- ------------------- ------------------------- ---------------- Pricing model Wang Transform (calibrated MLE) None Bid-ask MM None Constraint-based arbitrage 8 strategies None None N/A Multi-venue Kalshi + Polymarket + Solana Polymarket only Polymarket only Polymarket only On-chain execution Solana via DFlow + Jito No No N/A (SDK) Working paper Yang (2026), SSRN No No No Tests 633 0 0 50+ License Apache 2.0 MIT MIT MIT Architecture Strategies Constraint-based arbitrage — each exploits a violated probability axiom: Strategy Invariant ---------- ----------- Cross-Market Same event, same price across exchanges Exclusivity $P(A) + P(B) \\leq 1$ for mutually exclusi","default_branch":null,"files":null,"tree":[],"storefront":"/r/YichengYang-Ethan","claimed":false,"request_supported":{"post":"https://gitbuyer.com/r/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3/request-supported","requests":0},"note":"indexed from public GitHub; nothing is for sale on this page. Clone it from GitHub. Paid listings live at /search."}