{"repo":"DarriEy/Auramaur","free":true,"listed":false,"github":"https://github.com/DarriEy/Auramaur","clone":"git clone https://github.com/DarriEy/Auramaur.git","description":"Autonomous prediction market trading bot — Polymarket & Kalshi","language":"Python","stars":10,"topics":["claude","kalshi","llm-agents","polymarket","prediction-markets","trading-bot"],"license":"MIT","category":"trading","readme_excerpt":"Auramaur An autonomous trading bot for prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi), built in six days by a hydrologist using Claude Code. This is the bot from the Bloomberg Opinion piece \"I Built an AI Trading Platform in Six Days. That's Terrifying\" (April 2026) — though a great deal of tinkering has happened since those first six days. It is an experiment, not a money machine — paper-trading is the default, live capital is gated behind a graduation ladder, and most strategies stay on probation. Treat realized performance as a research result, not a promise. What it does Connects to Polymarket and Kalshi. Scans markets, gathers news from RSS / web search / Reddit / NewsAPI / FRED / Manifold / Metaculus, asks Claude to estimate the probability of each outcome, compares against the market price, and trades when there's edge after fees. - NLP analysis with calibrated probability estimation (Platt scaling on resolution feedback) and adversarial second opinions - Risk management with 15 independent checks per trade, geometric Kelly position sizing, drawdown limits, and category exposure caps - Multi-exchange order routing with per-exchange fee adjustment - Position reconciliation against on-chain CLOB trade history - Resolution tracking that closes the loop into the calibration system Safety constraints (hard-coded) 1. Paper trading is the default. Live orders require all three gates : AURAMAUR LIVE=true , execution.live=true , and per-order dry run=False . 2. A KILL SWITCH file (","default_branch":null,"files":null,"tree":[],"storefront":"/r/DarriEy","claimed":false,"request_supported":{"post":"https://gitbuyer.com/r/DarriEy/Auramaur/request-supported","requests":0},"note":"indexed from public GitHub; nothing is for sale on this page. Clone it from GitHub. Paid listings live at /search."}