{"repo":"AadiXD200/polymarket-weather-bot","free":true,"listed":false,"github":"https://github.com/AadiXD200/polymarket-weather-bot","clone":"git clone https://github.com/AadiXD200/polymarket-weather-bot.git","description":"Autonomous quantitative trading bot for Polymarket weather derivative markets — multi-model ensemble forecasting, Kelly criterion sizing, live CLOB execution","language":"Python","stars":10,"topics":["forecasting","kelly-criterion","machine-learning","python","quantitative-finance","trading-bot"],"license":null,"category":"trading","readme_excerpt":"Polymarket Weather Prediction Bot An autonomous quantitative trading system that identifies and exploits pricing inefficiencies in Polymarket weather derivative markets. The bot ingests multi-model meteorological ensemble forecasts, computes a probability distribution over temperature outcomes, and bets when its model price diverges significantly from the CLOB market price. --- Performance Paper Trading (Simulated fills at real CLOB prices) Metric Value -------- ------- Total trades 63 resolved positions Win rate 82.5% (52W / 11L) Gross P&L +$806.49 USDC Total capital deployed $2,264.15 USDC ROI on deployed capital +35.6% Avg model edge at entry 20.6 percentage points above market price Edge range 2.5pp – 93pp Period Mar 28 – Apr 3, 2026 (7 days) Direction breakdown: Side Trades Win Rate P&L ROI ------ -------- ---------- ----- ----- NO 60 83% +$797.68 +36.1% YES 3 67% +$8.81 +17.1% Top 5 trades: Market Entry Size P&L ROI -------- ------- ------ ----- ----- Houston NO, Mar 28 $0.06 $17 +$249.14 +1438% Houston NO, Apr 2 $0.44 $157 +$203.39 +130% Houston NO, Apr 1 $0.43 $128 +$169.26 +133% Tel Aviv NO, Apr 1 $0.47 $138 +$159.23 +115% San Francisco NO, Apr 2 $0.54 $143 +$124.10 +87% City breakdown: City Trades Win Rate P&L ROI ------ -------- ---------- ----- ----- Houston 6 83% +$623.53 +186.7% San Francisco 2 100% +$230.20 +90.9% Tel Aviv 1 100% +$159.23 +115.1% Dallas 12 92% +$79.26 +28.8% Seattle 5 100% +$17.09 +42.4% Miami 6 100% +$14.08 +23.1% Buenos Aires 11 82% +$8.59 +3","default_branch":null,"files":null,"tree":[],"storefront":"/r/AadiXD200","claimed":false,"request_supported":{"post":"https://gitbuyer.com/r/AadiXD200/polymarket-weather-bot/request-supported","requests":0},"note":"indexed from public GitHub; nothing is for sale on this page. Clone it from GitHub. Paid listings live at /search."}